Coronafun : 29th March, 2020

Here is today’s linear plot for 29th, March, 2020. This chart (and the one below it) represent the number of deaths that have occurred in a given country since that country had its first death.

Linear plot of deaths. vs. days since first death for US, Italy, Spain, France, United Kingdom, Iran

Looks pretty scary with all those numbers increasing more and more each day. However, there is a sliver lining. A logarithmic plot shows that this exponential rate of increase is slowing down. To wit…

Logarithmic plot of deaths. vs. days since first death for US, Italy, Spain, France, United Kingdom, Iran

As can be seen, the lines for Italy, Spain, France and Iran are showing a definitive trend toward the horizontal, and, as of today, the US and UK are hinting at heading in that direction too. This still means that the number of deaths per day is increasing, but the rate of that increase is slowing.

Coronavirus Deaths in U.S. Accelerating

Coronavirus appears to be accelerating in the U.S. as of 27th March, 2020. Here’s a chart…

Logarithmic Plot of Coronavirus Deaths in U.S.

One can see that after 18th March, the gradient steepens somewhat. The data is sourced from here; https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19, specifically time_series_covid19_deaths_global.csv.

When a logarithmic plot of the raw data shows a straight line, it implies that such data can be described by an equation of the form…

d = nx

…where d = number of deaths, x = number of days and n is a constant.

To determine the value of n, the least mean squares method will be used. However, before applying this method, need to define the equation that describes the logarithmic plot (converting the above by applying a base 10 log to both sides of the equation)…

log(d) = x.log(n)

The above equation makes the plot linear of the form y = mx + c. Now that it is in this form, the least mean squares method can be applied. However given the line in the above plot appears to show two distinct gradients, so going to calculate two y = mx + c results. Note that for the above equation, log(d) = x.log(n), log(d) is equivalent to y, log(n) is m and x is still x.

For the first y = mx + c, the data points between 4th March and 17th of March will be used. The number of deaths reported for each of those days is…

11,12,14,17,21,22,28,36,40,47,54,63,85,108

This gives the following value for m (according to Excel’s LINEST function)…

0.075338449.

To find n, need to perform the following calculation…

100.075338449

Which gives…

1.189429

Therefore the equation that describes the growth between March 4th and March 17th is…

d = 1.189429x

Note that the ‘c’ in y = mx + c has been dropped as it does not help describe the rate of growth of deaths.

Now looking at the steeper part of the the above plot, namely number of deaths between 20th March and 27th March, the data for which is here…

244,307,417,557,706,942,1209,1581

Performing the same calculations as above yields a growth equation of…

d = 1.308964x

Not the best of news and simply confirms mathematically what is visually obvious on the plot above.

Meanwhile, in Italy…

Logarithmic Plot of Number of Deaths in Italy

…one can see that the rate of acceleration is slowing down (although it’s still exponential). This basically means that in our original equation…

d = nx

…after appearing to remain constant for a while, n is now decreasing.

It should be pointed out that all the data is cumulative, meaning the numbers will never decrease. The best that can be hoped for is that it stops at a fixed figure and grows no further.

Government as a Service (GaaS)

For those of you who may not be familiar with the whole ‘as a Service’ thing, the above title could just as easily read “Government as an Operating System”.

The point being is that as civilization progresses (well hopefully), it’s various government and other organizational institutions should start taking care of more and more of life’s common issues freeing up the populace to get on with specific tasks required to effect their respective life goals.

Such goals would probably be better achieved if common denominator issues were part of this remit such as…

  • Education
  • Health care

If one looks at the general purpose of an operating system, one notices that it performs similar duties. An operating system takes care of reading and writing files to disk, handling internet connections, managing memory, security, etc. This allows the user to get on with more interesting things.

If we’re stuck with big government, why not get something out of it.

“Rotten Apple: Number of cyber attacks targeting Mac computers has overtaken Windows PC threats for the first time EVER, study claims”

Found here; https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-7995337/Cyber-threats-Apple-Macs-outpace-Windows-time.html

Well, yes, this is what happens when Hollywood only features Macs being used in movies. The world starts to believe that they’re by far the more popular computer and will be a better vector for virus software than PCs.